Subjective probability and quantum certainty

Probability and Certainty

Probability can be used to measure degree of belief in two ways: objectively and subjectively. The objective measure is a measure of the rational degree of belief in a proposition given a set of evidential propositions. The subjective measure is the measure of a particular subject’s dispositions to decide between options. In both measures, certainty is a degree of belief 1. I will show, however...

A Subjective Approach to Quantum Probability

A likelihood order is defined over linear subspaces of a finite dimensional Hilbert space. The question arises as to when such an order can be represented by a quantum probability. We introduce a few behaviorally plausible axioms that provide the answer in two cases: pure state and uniform measure. The general problem is answered by using duality-like conditions. The general problem of characte...

Probability without certainty

Like many discussions on the pros and cons of epistemic foundationalism, the debate between C.I. Lewis and H. Reichenbach dealt with three concerns: the existence of basic beliefs, their nature, and the way in which beliefs are related. In this paper we concentrate on the third matter, especially on Lewis’s assertion that a probability relation must depend on something that is certain, and Reic...

Subjective Probability ∗

We provide an overview of the idea of subjective probability and its foundational role in decision making and modern management sciences. We highlight the role of Savage’s theory as an organizing methodology to guide and constrain our modeling of choice under uncertainty, rather than a substantive statement subject to refutations by experimental or psychological evidence. ∗Prepared for The Wile...

Subjective Probability